Phoenix 450 Breakdown and Power Rank Introduced

Phoenix was a bit more of back to normal for racing. There were a few surprises but overall it was closer to what we have come to expect over the past couple of seasons. So lets get to it.

Track Conditions
The track seemed to be pretty good and didn't breakdown as fast as A1. 83% of the fastest laps registered happened in the first half of the race. After lap 10 only 3 racers registered their fastest lap times. This means the track was most likely getting slower as a whole because, you would expect guys to hit their fastest times once the pack got spread out. Which they did but, they did that mostly inside of the first 8 to 10 laps. The only logical conclusion is the track as a whole was breaking down as a whole. This seem to provide some pretty good racing though.

Below is a frequency analysis chart, looking at how frequently people set their fastest lap on what number lap. For example the first column 2 had 3 people set their fastest lap. I do apologize for the lack of organization of title on this chart though, next time will be more descriptive.

Most Consistent:
Looking at all of the lap times the one guy pops out to me, Justin Brayton. The top 10 most consistent racers of the night breakdown as follows:
1. Justin Brayton
2. James Stewart
3. Ryan Villopoto
4. Ryan Dungey
5. Justin Barcia
6. Andrew Short
7. Chad Reed
8. Nick Wey
9. Broc Tickle
10. Ivan Tedesco

Consistency again shows some correlation to where guys finish. Brayton was the most consistent guy overall and had arguably maybe his best performance in Supercross to date. Stewart charged forward, Villopoto won and the rest of the group here doesn't finish off far from where they are ranked in this

Power Ranking
I decided to play around a bit with a power ranking system based off of fastest lap time, variation of lap times and where they finished. Now almost everyone finished 20 laps. The few riders who didn't I simply used the forecasting ability of Excel to predict their potential lap times for lap 19, 20 or both. From there I found their fastest lap times, the variance in their lap times overall and compared this against where they actually finished in the race. This comes together to create what I call a power rank and I will use this overtime to see if we can predict where guys will finish in the next race before it even happens.

Phoenix Power Rankings
1. Villopoto - Finished 1st
2. Brayton - Finished 2nd
3. Dungey - Finished 3rd
4. Stewart - Finished 4th
5. Barcia - Finished 5th
6. Roczen - Finished 6th
7. Short - Finished 7th
8. Tickle - Finished 8th
9. Reed - Finished 9th
10. Moss - Finished 11th

Phoenix Rank Variance + Fast Lap Rank + Average Lap Time
1. Villopoto - Finished 1st
2. Dungey  - Finished 3rd
2. Stewart -Finished 4th
2. Brayton - Finished 2nd
5. Barcia - Finished 5th
6. Roczen - Finished 6th
7. Short - Finished 7th
8. Tickle - Finished 8th
9. Tedesco - Finished 12th
10. Reed - Finished 9th

The results from this were pretty encouraging. This shows that the variance in lap times, your fastest lap and average lap times overall are a strong predictor of where a racer will finish. There was a 3 way tie for 2nd place, but they all somewhere in those 3 positions. So what does this truly mean?

This means that in order to be fast you need to be consistent. You can physically measure progress in your lap times by analyzing these variables and can see how you are doing. Now this doesn't tell you what factors create consistency and reduce variation in your lap times, plus make you fast. But it does let you know what factors to analyze for yourself. Then each individual has different things that make them more or less consistent on the track and influence performance.

Villopoto vs Brayton

This paints an interesting picture about the race. You can definitely see where Brayton's average times were dropping quickly as Villopoto's average lap time was increasing. This resulted in the late battle and charge that we saw. Interesting to see how their race looked visually based on times and in comparison. Brayton seemed to stay consistent to gain the lead and as Villopoto seemed to turn the afterburners on. Then possibly struggle a bit with consistency based on whatever was occurring in the race and Brayton made the late charge to give us some excitement at the end of the race.