A1 450 Breakdown

The times and information that I am using in this article were obtained from the AMA by their website http://archives.amasupercross.com/2014/index.html?EventID=S1405. From there I analyzed the data as a whole. The following is what we are able to tell about the A1 450 main event.

Track Times
From the lap times as a whole we can theorize that the track began to breakdown and the physical stress of racing started to really show itself around lap 7. At this point the lap times as a whole began to drop. Previous to lap 7 or at least at lap 7, approximately 67% of the field turned their fastest lap and 87% by lap 9 (not including those who DNF'd early on). This also seems to be around the time that the race started to get really interesting and the racing got close. The following is a ranking of each lap overall. I did eliminate as many anomalies as I could, that would skew the results.
Lap 1 - not timed
Lap 2 - 14th
Lap 3 - 1st
Lap 4 - 4th
Lap 5 - 3rd
Lap 6 - 2nd
Lap 7 - 13th
Lap 8 - 5th
Lap 9 - 6th
Lap 10 - 8th
Lap 11 - 19th
Lap 12 - 7th
Lap 13 - 9th
Lap 14 - 10th
Lap 15 - 12th
Lap 16 - 11th
Lap 17 - 16th
Lap 18 - 15th
Lap 19 - 17th
Lap 20 - 18th

Speed and Consistency vs Result
This category looks at who was the overall fastest across the duration of the race and who was the most consistent with those lap times. This is important for evaluating performance. You might get a start like Alessi in Heat 1 and be maybe 3 or 4 seconds ahead on lap 2 but loose that slowly across the race, yet still win. If you want to evaluate the performance of a racer not by result alone, then this is how you would do it. I will only list the top 10 though, as the full field is not necessary.
1. Broc Tickle
2. Ken Roczen
3. Ryan Dungey
4. Jake Weimer
5. Andrew Short
6. Justin Barcia
7. Justin Brayton
8. Chad Reed
9. Josh Grant
10. Ryan Villopoto

If we include where the riders officially finished the story is as follows:
1. Ken Roczen
2. Ryan Dungey
3. Broc Tickle
4. Justin Barcia
5. Chad Reed
6. Justin Brayton
7. Jake Weimer
8. Andrew Short
9. Josh Grant
10. Ryan Villopoto

Conclusions:
From this I think we can tell that Ken absolutely deserved to be in first. Now we all have to admit that Stewart would have passed him if he stayed on two wheels. His results were excluded due to his DNF. Roczen though came out and showed everyone in the business that he is going to be for real this year.

Stewart made a real presence and I think the hype around him making a comeback, may be true...this time. I did find that his fastest lap and the overall fastest lap of the race was lap 15. He went down on lap 16 and I think we can surely say that James Stewart is back.

Villopoto was a real shock to everyone. He started strong and went down about the time that the track slowed down overall. The real shocker is after the crash, him not being able to turn it around and surprise us with his ferociousness. At lap 16 he fell off the pace and his lap times were above 1 minute while the leaders were maintaining under 1 minute on average. Whether he decided to play it safe or the crash really took more out of him than we thought, only he will know.

Chad Reed I think proved he is back with some real potential. Why he started to fall off the pace the last couple of lap, who knows. But regardless it was only about about 1 second or less and he showed everyone that he is back in a big way.

Justin Barcia showed that he does have some real potential to be a contender. He rode extremely well and scored high in all of the categories listed. Once he puts everything together as a whole with a bit more experience, he will be consistently challenging for podiums and wins.

Broc Tickle is the real shocker here. He finished 8th overall yet he was the most consistent on his lap times overall  while maintaining highest possible rate of speed for his abilities. I think it's big leap forward for him and the RCH team. Regardless of his final finish I think this shows he has real potential to put the team on the map this year. If he would have started better and been further up front, who knows exactly where he would have finished. Overall though I would say to look out for Tickle this season. It may be his year to make a statement in the 450 class.